Trump Tariffs 2025: Freight, Air & Ocean Disruptions
Global trade is holding its breath and the freight world is feeling the squeeze.
With the Trump-era tariffs on pause, a flood of imports from China is overwhelming ports, disrupting air cargo, and creating flashbacks of the COVID-era chaos. But this time, the panic is policy-driven, not pandemic-induced.
If you’re a shipper or freight forwarder, here’s what you need to know and more importantly, what you should be doing right now.
Ocean Freight Under Trump Tariffs: Congestion, Cost & Chaos
What’s happening:
- Imports from China surged 30% in Q1 following the 90-day tariff truce.
- U.S. ports—especially LA, Long Beach, and NY/NJ—are once again clogged.
- Container dwell times are up 20–25%.
- Warehouses near ports are full, and truck capacity is tight.
Why it matters:
This is a classic “frontload before the storm” move. Retailers, builders, and importers are scrambling to get goods in before tariffs resume. The ripple effect is stressing every link in the supply chain.
Practical Steps:
- Book ocean freight early. Space is selling out weeks in advance.
- Use less congested ports. Consider alternatives like Houston, Savannah, or Oakland if your inland routes allow it.
- Pre-clear customs. Streamline documentation before arrival to avoid warehouse backlogs and costly storage delays.
Contract local drayage capacity ahead of time—don’t assume availability.
Air Freight & Trump Tariffs: De Minimis Fallout
What changed:
- The U.S. suspended the de minimis rule for Chinese e-commerce imports in February 2025.
- In response, Chinese sellers are:
- Shifting fulfillment to Mexico and Southeast Asia
- Switching from air to ocean for bulk shipments
- Reducing reliance on Transpacific air lanes
- Shifting fulfillment to Mexico and Southeast Asia
What’s the impact:
- Spot rates dipped after an initial pre-deadline spike.
- Capacity is shifting to other routes, potentially driving down prices elsewhere.
- U.S. customs infrastructure may struggle to enforce new compliance rules smoothly.
Recommendations for Air Freight Users:
- Avoid reliance on spot rates—book strategic capacity while rates are soft.
- Use Mexico as a bridge. Consider routing air shipments into Tijuana or Monterrey, then trucking into the U.S.
Audit your parcels. Make sure you’re not misclassified under new de minimis rules to avoid penalties or hold-ups.
Freight Rates & Trump Tariffs: A Price War Begins
Current trends:
- Xeneta reports freight rates spiking up to 20% on China–U.S. West Coast lanes.
- Blank sailings are up 86%.
- Container consolidation services are booming.
Why this matters:
Shippers are being forced to pay premium rates or risk being left out. Contracts are becoming shorter and more volatile.
What to Do Now:
- Adopt dynamic pricing strategies. Move away from long-term rate locks unless you have rate protection clauses.
- Bundle shipments. Use consolidation partners or NVOCCs to share containers and reduce per-unit costs.
Lock in capacity, not price. Prioritize access over savings during volatility.
Planning Freight in a Tariff-Driven Economy
The tariff pause is short. But the logistics fallout could last all year.
The risks:
- Inventory gaps (especially in critical goods like pharma, semiconductors, and chemicals)
- Margin erosion from volatile shipping costs
Disrupted planning models that can’t keep up with policy swings.
Smart Moves to Manage the Chaos:
- Scenario-plan every 30–60 days. Create “tariff on” vs “tariff off” sourcing and logistics plans.
- Invest in predictive analytics. Demand sensing tools can help you model trade policy impacts.
- Restructure inventory buffers. Hold more stock closer to consumption points (especially in the U.S. or Mexico).
Final Thought: Trump Tariffs Demand Freight Flexibility
This isn’t just a trade story, it’s a resilience test for your supply chain.
Whether Trump’s tariffs come back or not, the winners will be the companies who build flexibility now.
The message is clear: Don’t wait for policy. Plan for volatility.